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Will Democrats learn from election?

Originally published in the Herald-Mail

Economic & Fiscal Policy, Health Care

by Thomas A. Firey

OP-EDS

The Republican Party will regain control of the U.S. House of Representatives following Tuesday’s election and pick up several seats in the Senate, possibly even retaking control of that chamber, according to the latest polling data.[1] Democratic Speaker Nancy Pelosi will lose her speakership and Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid could lose his seat. Those results are a stunning reversal from just one year ago, when Democrats and allied independents held a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate and a 79-seat advantage in the House.

Democratic Party operatives are already trying to explain away the looming losses and discredit the idea that voters are rejecting the party’s “new progressivism.” Among those explanations:

·         The election is a racially motivated backlash against President Obama.

·         Elected Democrats failed to move far enough to the political left.

·         Republican candidates are receiving disproportionate financial support from big-money interests.

·         Tea Party activists and other Obama critics have waged a disinformation campaign.

·         In the words of President Obama, “fear and frustration” over the economy have made voters unable to “think clearly.”[2]

None of those explanations is convincing.

·         President Obama entered office with job approval ratings above 60 percent and disapproval ratings below 20 percent; but for the last three months his job disapproval numbers have been higher than his approval numbers.[3] It’s doubtful that much of America turned racist in the past two years.

·         Almost half of all Americans now say the Democratic Party is “too liberal” while only 10 percent say it is “too conservative,” according to the latest polling data.[4] So it’s doubtful the Democrat-controlled Congress didn’t move far enough to the left to satisfy voters.  

·         The latest campaign finance data indicate that Democratic candidates and Democrat-aligned independent groups will out-raise and outspend Republican candidates and their supporters (including anonymously funded ones) in this election.[5] This follows the same pattern as the previous two national elections, when big money from Wall Street poured into Democrats’ war chests.[6]

·         Democratic officeholders enjoy an enormous public relations advantage from incumbency, including the bully pulpit of the White House. That advantage should easily overcome any disinformation campaign.

·         Polling data on economic confidence and expectations have held steady over the past 18 months and have improved since President Obama first took office.[7] That suggests there has been no large increase in economic fear.

So what does explain the Democrats’ looming losses? The current Democratic Congress, working with President Obama, passed major, costly pieces of legislation intended to stimulate the economy and fundamentally change American health care, piling up mountains of debt in the process. The previous Congress, also controlled by Democrats, worked with President George W. Bush to pass an earlier stimulus bill and large bailouts for Wall Street and U.S.-based automakers. Polling data indicate that all of those measures are unpopular.[8]

I think the Democrats’ problem is not simply that voters disapprove of the stimulus, bailout and health care bills, but that voters disapprove of the way those bills were crafted and how they affect all Americans. The health care bill alone involves countless value judgments, leaps-of-faith and tradeoffs that affect Americans’ most personal decisions about their medical care, privacy and finances. No doubt, each of those decisions is justifiable. But just as doubtless, many Americans — informed by their own values and circumstances — would have made different decisions for themselves. Adding to Americans’ grievances, those political decisions were made in closed-door negotiations between Democratic leaders and special interests, and voters were dismissively told they would find out what’s in the bill once Congress passed it.[9]

The U.S. population is comprised of more than 310 million people with remarkably diverse values, expectations, circumstances and tolerance for risk. Given that diversity, it is unsurprising that politicians who force a specific set of decisions on Americans, without a sincere attempt at persuasion or even explanation, would face pushback. That is why polls measuring Americans’ already-low trust in Congress have plummeted since January 2009,[10] along with President Obama’s approval numbers.

Lest Tuesday’s victories make Republicans feel smug, they should review their own polling numbers. Republicans have opened an unprecedented lead in generic congressional ballot polls,[11] but GOP congressional leaders’ job approval numbers are as dismal as those for Democrats.[12] Just a few years ago, Republicans — under the influence of neoconservatives and social conservatives — attempted to force their own set of preferences and questionable judgments on the nation, and also piled up mountains of debt. The result was “a thumpin’” — in the words of President Bush — in the 2006 midterm election, followed by more losses in 2008.

Voters are now poised to deliver a thumpin’ to Democrats. The important question is whether either party has learned the right lesson from their setbacks. Tea Party activists’ focus — to the extent the Tea Party movement has a unified focus — on fiscal responsibility and limited government (the best form of government for a diverse nation) may restrain Republican politicians’ impulse to overreach. Tuesday’s defeats may likewise chasten President Obama and his fellow Democrats. We’ll soon find out.