Microsoft holds all the cards in a potential deal to open an innovation center in Southeast D.C. as experts say the tech giant likely won't make its decision based on any perks the city throws its way.

The company will locate its 91st such collaborative research facility -- and the first in the United States -- based on what's good for the lucrative company's business, experts said.

"I think Microsoft would be reluctant to accept any sweeteners," said Jim Dinegar, president of the Greater Washington Board of Trade, which helps woo businesses to the region. "If they need to be there in terms of an innovation center, it would be because it's good for Microsoft and good for visibility. ... They'd be hard-pressed to find any need to negotiate a deal."

D.C. Mayor Vincent Gray has said he hopes to reach a deal with the Redmond, Wash.-based tech giant "in the first quarter of 2012," calling the company the "catalyst for economic development" and a marquee name to attract other businesses in the underserved Ward 8. The Washington Examiner reported last week the city was trying to woo Microsoft to its 170-acre side of the St. Elizabeths Hospital campus near Anacostia.

Microsoft Innovation Centers are labs where the research community, government and academia can collaborate on technology and software development.

Stephen Fuller, director of George Mason University's Center for Regional Analysis, said the District could still offer a tax incentive to Microsoft, "but I don't know that D.C. has to pay a lot for it." He noted the city does have one piece of leverage -- real estate.

The Department of Homeland Security is planning to consolidate its agencies across the street from the East campus, and the U.S. Coast Guard is slated to move in 3,800 employees to a new facility there in 2013. The city hopes to turn the East campus into a science and technology hub with everything from large companies to startups serving those agencies.

"You have the potential ... where you can rub shoulders with [major suppliers]," Fuller said. "There's not a whole lot of land close-in where you can do that."

Microsoft has so far kept mum on opening a center in D.C, although a spokeswoman did confirm to The Examiner that the company "had a meeting with D.C. officials where the possibility was discussed."

Christopher Summers, president of the Maryland Public Policy Institute, said D.C. might be forced to give up more if Maryland and Virginia try to steal away Microsoft. At that point, it could come down to "the corporate business tax climate," Summers said. "And Virginia is very friendly."