Linda Powell works at the Walmart at Golden Ring Mall and rides the Route 35 bus to work. At 55, Powell says she's got a long way to go before she's eligible for a senior fare. So the prospect of an increase in the Maryland Transit Administration's current $1.60 base fare - a step recently suggested by state legislative analysts - fills her with dread.

"This is my only means of transportation going to work," she said. "Everything's going up but your wages. ... Nobody can afford it."

There is growing pressure from Annapolis to raise fares - which have not changed since 2003 - to recover more of the transit agency's expenses from riders of its bus and rail services. Some have proposed boosting the base fare to $2.15 or even higher.

The O'Malley administration has vowed to hold the line through the rest of this year, and Administrator Ralign T. Wells said the MTA is concentrating its efforts on cost-containment measures, such as an effort to reduce unscheduled overtime.

"We've decided we're going to look inside our own house before we look outside," Wells said.

That strategy runs counter to a national trend of fare increases as transit systems face mounting costs and recession-related declines in tax revenues. According to an American Public Transit Association study last year, almost 90 percent of large transit agencies have been forced to raise fares or cut service in recent years. With continuing revenue shortfalls, it is likely that number has only increased.

Already this year, Washington's Metro transit system adopted a "temporary" fare increase to solve the shortfall in one budget year and is looking at other, permanent increases to stave off service cuts in its next budget. New Jersey Transit has proposed a 25 percent fare increase, accompanied by service cuts and layoffs. And New York, which increased its base subway and bus fare by 50 cents to $2.50 last year, followed that action this month with $93 million in service cuts - including the elimination of transit lines and bus routes.

The MTA has made some service cuts since a major round of trims in 2005, but they have been relatively modest - falling largely on commuter bus routes. Nor have base fares increased since they jumped from $1.35 to $1.60 in 2003.

Meanwhile, the percentage of operating expenses paid for by passenger fares - a measure known as "farebox recovery" - has eroded from 33 percent in 2006 to a projected 30 percent this year and next. That falls short of the statutory target of 35 percent set in state law. But according to public transit association spokeswoman Virginia Miller, 30 percent is about average among U.S. public transit agencies.

The MTA's farebox recovery from its generally more affluent MARC commuter train passengers, who pay higher fares than local bus and rail riders, has eroded more sharply - from 59 percent in 2006 to an expected 42 percent next year - as contractual payments to the railroads who own the Penn, Camden and Brunswick lines have increased.

The General Assembly's legislative analysts estimated recently that the MTA would have to raise its base fare by 55 cents - to $2.15 - to meet its statutory recovery goals. Exerting not-so-subtle pressure on the administration to consider a fare increase, the analysts recommended holding back $1 million of the MTA's budget until it submits reports on short-term and long-term fare policy. The MTA's parent Maryland Department of Transportation opposes that recommendation, contending any fare increase would hurt ridership growth at a time when MTA customers are dealing with economic hardship.

According to the MTA, it could not impose an increase to take effect this year even if it decided to do so now. The agency said that it would take at least nine months to implement such a change because of public hearing requirements and the need to reprogram systems, among other things.

But the MTA's stance comes at a time of growing budget pressure, when legislators are scratching for alternatives to cut spending and avoid raising taxes. In a recent alternative budget proposal, two Senate Republicans recommended setting the farebox recovery rate at 50 percent. According to the MTA, that would translate into a base fare of $2.75 to $3 - more than a 70 percent increase.

"They're not living in the real world," said Andre Powell, a Route 35 rider who works for the Department of Social Services. "The state should bite the bullet and not put another burden on the backs of the poor and working people."

Melissa Aikins, a mother of four, said it already costs her $20 a day to go shopping with her children. "This is how I get around. This is how I get them going, and children, you can't keep them cooped up in the house," she said. At the rates required for a 50 percent farebox recovery, she said, "we'll never be going nowhere."

In part, the divergent views on public transit fares reflect regional and political differences.

For Gov. Martin O'Malley, a Democrat and former mayor of Baltimore, the city's transit riders - a group that is largely made up of low-income African-Americans - represent a sizable part of his core constituency. Raising their fares in a year when he is up for re-election is hardly an appealing prospect.

The chief Republican authors of the alternative budget plan, Sens. David R. Brinkley and E.J. Pipkin, have a far different political base. Brinkley's district includes Frederick and Carroll counties, while Pipkin hails from the Upper Eastern Shore. Both districts are a mix of rural areas and outer suburbs where few ride public transit.

Brinkley gives O'Malley no credit for keeping fares level.

"He's going to hold the line until he gets through the election," Brinkley said. "The next year this is going to be on the table. The question is going to be how much."

According to Brinkley, the state is likely to face calls for a 20- to 25-cent increase in the gasoline tax - which has remained unchanged at 23.5 cents a gallon since 1992 - next year. He said that if vehicle owners must pay such an increase, transit riders should do the same.

"The motoring public can't continue to subsidize it at the rate it's going," he said.

But Wells said an increase of that magnitude would be unreasonable.

The MTA chief said his aim is to increase fare collections by improving service and attracting more riders. But he acknowledged that another fare increase is inevitable at some time.

When that happens, he said, it will follow an across-the-board review of the MTA's rate structure that would include a study of its discount programs and new ways of collecting fares. He said he hopes the MTA's long-planned but much-delayed introduction of "smart card" technology could plug losses caused by defective fare machines.

Some transit critics contend that increased collections alone will not make a significant enough difference in how public transit is financed. Christopher Summer, president of the libertarian-oriented Maryland Public Policy Institute, suggests the best solution to the MTA's financial challenges is to turn it into a privatized, nonunion system.

Whether that would be doable is questionable, however. The MTA was created as the successor to a collection of private companies that couldn't turn a profit providing transit services.

Wells said transit can't be judged in terms of profits and losses. "People who don't have kids pay taxes for the school system. It's the same with transit," he said. "Transit is a public service."

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