Maryland's economy stalls out

Originally published in the Frederick News-Post

MPPI in the News Editorial Board Jun 20, 2014

Maryland’s economic growth was zero in 2013. Nothing. Nada. Zip.

The report with this rather depressing news was issued last week by the U.S. Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Economic Analysis, which ranked Maryland 49th of the 50 states and Washington, D.C., for stagnation in its gross domestic product, or GDP. If nothing else, it should spur debate about the state’s harsh policies toward business and its excessive reliance on its proximity to D.C., with the federal workers, federal facilities and government contractors in the state.

Christopher B. Summers, president of the conservative-leaning Maryland Public Policy Institute, was quick to place blame in a statement June 12, when the report was issued: “Today’s troubling news is ... a warning shot to elected officials that Maryland’s economy is adrift. Maryland’s economic stagnation stems from eight years of the O’Malley-Brown Administration’s anti-growth agenda, which discourages entrepreneurs, raises taxes and fees on the middle class, and prompted tens of thousands of Marylanders to declare residence in more tax-friendly states.”

While the state’s suppressive attitude to business is certainly one factor in why things ground to a halt last year, the real story is Maryland’s reliance on the federal government. Cuts to federal funding are a key reason why Virginia fared only a smidgen better than Maryland with a tepid 0.1 percent increase in GDP, and why D.C. lost ground with a decrease of one-half of 1 percent.

What should be making our state’s leaders nervous is that Maryland been losing ground over the past four years, its GDP declining from 2.8 percent growth in 2010 to 1.7 percent in 2011, and 1.2 percent in 2012. The U.S. GDP grew 1.8 percent in 2013, better than 2011, but slowing from 2012’s 2.5 percent.

While it’s nice to be propped up by the influx of federal money, what the stagnant economy in Maryland shows is that our state relies too heavily on that federal largesse. Government work makes up 21 percent of our economy (almost double the national rate) — an equal portion is made up of the finance, insurance, real estate and leasing industries. If Maryland is to improve its standing, lawmakers need to reconsider the state’s regressive taxation and seek to diversify.

In a column for Forbes, Rex Sinquefield lauds gubernatorial candidate and Brown challenger Doug Gansler’s proposal to cut the state’s corporate tax rate from 8.25 to 6 percent — legislation, interestingly enough, promoted in 2013 by Kelly Schulz, a Republican delegate from Frederick County, and supported by the Tax Foundation. This would make Maryland’s rate comparable to Virginia’s. Such a move would help boost the economy by allowing businesses to reinvest that small savings in equipment or personnel. That’s one small tweak in a larger, more complicated regional economy.

According to Sinquefield, a truer picture of Maryland’s economic health can be found in measuring in-migration or out-migration of its adjusted gross income. Over the past 20 years, the state has lost $7.8 billion in AGI. “Every 60 seconds, the state of Maryland loses $768 in adjusted gross income,” Sinquefield states. “Clearly, this unsustainable path is causing real harm to the state’s overall economy and the welfare of every Maryland family.” If accurate, this is a frightening loss of money indeed — and a clear place to start looking for remedies.