ANNAPOLIS - A local delegate who has earned the nickname "Dr. Doom" within the Republican caucus on Tuesday took part in a four-person panel about the state's pension and health care obligations.

In introducing himself, Del. Andrew A. Serafini, R-Washington, used the "Dr. Doom" nickname, which he's earned by sounding the alarm about the issue, he said. Serafini said he sees three major problems with Maryland's current benefits system: poor investment returns, over-promising and under-funding.

The issue is not political, he said.

"The numbers are the numbers are the numbers," Serafini said.

Serafini has said before, many times, that he does not suggest changing any current employee's retirement plan. Any changes would affect future employees, he said.

The forum, called "Will State Employee Pension Bankrupt Maryland?" was organized by the Maryland Public Policy Institute and held at The Maryland Inn in Annapolis.

Highlights of a study by the Pew Center on the States were presented by Kil Huh, director of research for that study. Huh discussed "The Trillion Dollar Gap: Underfunded State Retirement Systems and the Road to Reform."

The country is just starting to recover from the recession that began in December 2007 and ended, most economists believe, in the third or fourth quarter of 2009, Huh said.

But states will grapple with the after-effects for years to come, with many economists predicting a four- to six-year timeline for recovery by most states, he said.

When later challenged by a questioner as to whether the recession has ended -the questioner cited high unemployment as evidence it's not over -Huh said unemployment is a lagging indicator. The Gross Domestic Product has seen growth for several quarters, which is what economists use to measure the end of a recession, he said.

According to information provided by The Pew Center on the States, there are "serious concerns" about Maryland's pension liabilities. Eight states are classified by the center as having such concerns.

The Pew Center on the States works to advance state policies that serve the public interest, according to its Web site. The center conducts research, brings together diverse perspectives and analyzes states' experiences in an effort to identify and advance nonpartisan, pragmatic solutions for problems affecting Americans, the site says.

According to the center, Maryland's pension fund was 96.7 percent funded in 1999. By 2008, it was only 78.39 percent funded, according to the center.

Much of the $1 trillion budget shortfall facing states is attributed to retiree health care. While those in attendance Tuesday had many questions about how the recently passed federal health care reform will affect that data, the panelists seemed to agree it was too early to know how the reform will affect costs.

In the long term, Maryland can expect to pay $15 billion over 30 years to provide health care benefits to its retirees, said panelist Gabriel J. Michael, senior fellow at the Maryland Public Policy Institute. The state has about $174 million in its health care trust fund, he said.

When asked what he believed drove the high cost of health care, Serafini said he thought defensive medicine and the inability to sell insurance across state lines were to blame.

Dels. Christopher B. Shank, R-Washington, and Charles A. Jenkins, R-Frederick/Washington, attended Tuesday's panel.

Jenkins said the state should be no less accountable for fully funding pensions than a private company.

He does not support shifting part of the cost of teacher pensions to counties, as there has been a push in the Senate to do, Jenkins said. He said he would like to look at shifting education dollars from one pot to another, still using state education funding.

"We've got to start saying that funding promises made to employees will be kept," he said.

R. Dean Kenderdine, executive director of the Maryland State Retirement Agency, defended the state's "defined benefit plans" that go to teachers, troopers, legislators and judges.

The state plan is reliable and, with good fiscal oversight, can be a sustainable form of retirement that can lessen the burden on public assistance, Kenderdine said. For those without such a retirement plan, the poverty rate is six times that what it is for those who have a defined-benefit plan.

"Public pensions will work as they have over time," he said.

Kenderdine cautioned against a "race to the bottom" in doing away with the current system.